Understanding the Seeds of Growth: Technological Evolution and Product Innovation

Technological change is perhaps the most powerful engine of growth in markets today. To harness this source of growth, firms need to understand the dynamics of technological change. In particular, they need answers to the following questions: (1) How do new technologies evolve? (2) How do rival technologies compete? (3) How do firms deal with technological evolution? Currently, answers to these questions come primarily from the theory of S-curves of technological evolution. However, that theory is based on scattered empirical evidence and some circular definitions. Using new definitions, the authors examine the pattern and competitive dynamics of technological evolution in 23 technologies from six markets. Results seem to cast doubt on the received wisdom about technological evolution. The results have important managerial implications.